Hey, fridg3.org! Ashton here. We all think a lot alike. Like seriously.
If you asked someone to pick a number between any range of numbers, you could
probably easily guess what number they picked. We tend to think of the
same numbers when we're given the question and need to respond quickly, like
if I asked someone to pick a number between 1 and 10, we can probably predict what
they'll say if we know them really well.
The "think of a number, add 5, etc etc" trick uses this logic to be so effective.
Some variations of this trick use subtle maths tricks so the outcome is always the
same, but other times we can use the above logic to surprise people. It turns out
that, if you ask for a number between 1 and 10, the most common responses are 4 or 7,
and it's by a landslide.
You can also apply the same logic to win Rock, Paper, Scissors. I surveyed this
theory with some friends, and it turns out that, at least in real life where the
options aren't made visible to them visually, the majority of the time they pick
Scissors first. Then rock. Then rock again. And only after that did they tend to
derive from any predictable move.
The predictability and mindgames of RPS would actually make it a really compelling
competitive game. Should you pick scissors first, or is that too predictable? Or,
are they expecting you to be unpredictable, so you should indeed go for scissors?
Whenever computers generate random numbers, they're not actually random.
They're pseudo-random, meaning they're generated by a formula that's designed
to produce a sequence of numbers that appear random. But, if you know the formula,
you can predict the next number in the sequence, which makes it possible to introduce a bias.
So, if randomness defined by a formula can be biased and therefore pseudo-random, can we as humans be truly random?
Think about it. Every course of action that we take in picking something "random" always has some sort of influence.
If we roll a dice, its outcome is influenced by the way we throw it, the surface it lands on, the way it bounces,
and the way it's picked up before being thrown. While we might not have control over these factors, they still influence
the outcome, so they're not truly random.
So, is it possible to have a random outcome from something without any influence or bias?
...no. It's not. It's impossible. Everything has some sort of influence, and therefore, nothing can be truly random.
We consider a dice roll to be random in the same way we consider a box empty; while it's not truly empty because it's filled with particles,
it's empty in the sense that it's devoid of any significant contents. In the same way, a dice roll is random in the sense that it's devoid of any
significant influence.
Going back to the "think of a number" example, we can't be truly random in our choices. We're influenced
by our surroundings, our experiences, and our thoughts. This bias is also what makes us believe that we're seeing
a lot of coincidences in our lives, such as seeing the same number multiple times in a day. I have a friend called Nathan
who always sees the number 26 everywhere he goes, and he considers it his special number. But, in reality, he only sees it
more often because he's subconsciously looking for it.
Furthermore, some horoscopes and fortune tellers use this bias to their advantage. They make broad and vague predictions, and because
we're biased to look for coincidences, we're more likely to believe that they're true. This is also why we're more likely to
believe in superstitions, such as black cats being bad luck or the number 13 being unlucky.
Conclusion
So... does unbiased randomness exist?
No. It doesn't. Everything has some sort of influence, and therefore, nothing can be truly random. We're biased by our surroundings, our experiences,
and our thoughts, and this bias is also what makes us believe in coincidences and superstitions.
You could argue that randomness is a human construct, and that it doesn't exist in the universe. However, we tend to define it as something
that's devoid of any significant influence, so in that sense, it does exist.
But, in the end, it's all just a matter of perspective. Outcomes can't be truly random, but if we don't have control over them,
then perhaps that's all randomness needs to mean.